Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
